Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Berkshire VC: "It's Over"

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's long time Partner writes in Slate:
"Long-time business partner of Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, writes in a new article for Slate.com that “it’s basically over” for the United States economy.

In his article, the Berkshire Hathaway vice chairman constructs the parable of Basicland, whose economy just so happens to run parallel to that of America.

In the beginning of Basicland, people live within their means, debt is limited to mortgages and some consumer loans, speculation is discouraged, and taxes are limited and pay for only “basic services” like fighting fires, defense, and the court system.

As a result, the economy happily grows at a steady annual rate of 3 percent.

But things take a turn for the worse, Munger writes.

“The extreme prosperity of Basicland had created a peculiar outcome: As their affluence and leisure time grew, Basicland’s citizens more and more whiled away their time in the excitement of casino gambling,” and financial services soon grow to account for too big a portion of the economy."

The Coming Plunge, Now in BusinessWeek

Whether due to the slow apprehension descending upon US public, or perhaps a fast apprehension descending on news editors following today's, uh, plunge, , it's interesting to note Prechter's December ?) prediction made it to BusinessWeek by late February, as now it seems to be validated by several pundits (on top of the chart).

S&P 500 May Plunge in Last Elliott Wave: Technical Analysis - BusinessWeek

S&P 500 May Plunge in Last Elliott Wave: Technical Analysis - BusinessWeek: "Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. stock market may be at the last stage of a retreat that will drive the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index below a 12-year low it reached last year, according to an Elliott Wave analysis by StockCharts.com."

Other notables who recently share the view include:

Richard Lehman
whoi seems to spot a channel break
Lehman's Channel analysis in StockCharts.com

A Part of NY
An honest view

Garry Shilling (from Jesse Felder)
"It's all just one big trade"

Robert Reich
Predicts a correction in 2010
Commonwealth club TV